South Gippsland is already spending millions on storm recovery as coastal communities face severe future risks.
Australia's first National Climate Risk Assessment has delivered a sobering picture of climate change impacts, with South Gippsland already experiencing some of the physical and financial devastation outlined in the federal government's comprehensive report released this week.
Last week, South Gippsland Shire Council’s Annual Financial Report for the year ending 30 June 2025 was tabled, and revealed that the Council has spent $20.6 million on clean-up and recovery from five major storms between June 2022 and August 2024. These more frequent and extreme heavy downpours are one of the impacts of climate change in the Prom Coast, and come despite an overall trend of declining rainfall.
These local figures align with the National Climate Risk Assessment’s projections, which warn that disaster recovery costs could reach $40.3 billion annually by 2050, even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C. Property values across Australia face a $611 billion hit by mid-century.
The assessment also identifies coastal areas like ours as particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, with more than 1.5 million Australians at risk of inundation by 2050. Under a 3°C warming scenario, sea levels would rise by 0.54 meters, compared to 0.14 meters under 1.5°C warming.
Tarwin Lower is five metres above sea level, Sandy Point is nine metres above sea level, while Yanakie is 20 metres above sea level.
The report says communities within 10 kilometres of soft shorelines face especially high risks from erosion, inundation and infrastructure damage. The report warns that 597,000 people are already living in areas that will become exposed to sea level rise by 2030.
The climate assessment's release coincided with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announcing Australia's 2035 emissions reduction target of 62-70 percent, described by the PM as “the right target to protect our environment, to protect and advance our economy and jobs and to ensure that we act in our national interest and in the interest of this and future generations."
Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen acknowledged the report's confronting nature but emphasised that "the cost of inaction will always outweigh the cost of action." The assessment examined impacts under three warming scenarios, with current global commitments tracking toward 2.9°C warming this century, according to data from the Climate Change Authority.
Beyond economic costs, the assessment warns of severe risks to eight key systems including health, infrastructure, primary industries and the natural environment. Heat-related deaths in major cities like Sydney could increase by over 400 percent under 3°C warming, while 40-70 percent of native plant species face extinction risks.
While the assessment paints a terrifying picture, it also provides the evidence base for Australia's first National Adaptation Plan, which the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water say will prioritise nationally significant risks and risks affecting groups that are disproportionately vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, be evidence based, collaborative, place-based and inclusive. Cara Schultz
