Our new MP? Aldred takes commanding lead in three-cornered Monash contest
First-time Liberal candidate Mary Aldred appears headed for victory in Monash, providing a rare bright spot for the Liberal Party in an otherwise horrific 2025 Federal Election.
What started as a contest too close to call on election night has solidified into a likely Liberal win as counting progressed through the weekend and into the week. According to the latest ABC stats, with 79.4% of votes counted, Aldred now leads by an estimated 8,592 votes in the two-party preferred count.
The ABC's preference estimate shows Aldred with 54.9% (48,015 votes) against Labor's Tully Fletcher with 45.1% (39,423 votes), representing a 2.4% swing to the Liberal Party in a seat they previously held with a margin of 2.9%.
"We've got no idea who is going to win Monash tonight," ABC election analyst Antony Green said on Saturday evening, noting that votes were going "all over the place" in what appeared to be a complex three-cornered contest. But as counting continued, Aldred's path to victory became increasingly clear.
The first preference count now shows Aldred has secured 32.2% (28,138 votes), despite a 5.6% swing against the Liberal Party. Labor's Tully Fletcher trails with 20.4% (17,809 votes), also suffering a 5.2% decline in primary support.
Independent candidate Deb Leonard sits in third position with 17.5% (15,290 votes), representing a 6.8% swing in her favour, but still more than 2,500 votes behind Labor. This gap has widened since Saturday night, making her challenge to overtake Fletcher increasingly difficult.
The contest was complicated by the presence of former Liberal Member for Monash Russell Broadbent, who ran as an independent and captured 10.2% of the vote (8,876 votes). Political analysts expect his preferences to flow strongly to Aldred, boosting her already substantial lead.
One Nation candidate Kuljeet Kaur Robinson secured 7.8% (6,835 votes), while the Greens' Terence Steele received 4.5% (3,941 votes).
The remaining candidates include Legalise Cannabis Party's David O'Reilly with 3.3% (2,928 votes), Trumpet of Patriots' Alex Wehbe with 2.4% (2,093 votes), and Family First's Geoff Dethlefs with 1.7% (1,528 votes).
With 73 of 74 polling centres having reported primary votes but no preference count yet available from the Australian Electoral Commission, the final result remains technically undeclared. However, preference flows from minor parties are expected to strongly favour Aldred.
One Nation and Family First preferences are anticipated to heavily benefit the Liberal candidate, while Leonard would need to secure an overwhelming share of preferences from the Greens and the Legalise Cannabis Party to advance to second place and access Labor preferences—a scenario that appears increasingly unlikely based on current numbers.
The Australian Electoral Commission has yet to officially call the result, with postal votes still being processed and preference distribution pending. However, with Aldred's substantial lead, the Prom Coast appears set to welcome her as the next Member for Monash when Parliament resumes. Cara Schultz
